My Observations of Peak Oil people ::)

[Leaf]

Having been aware of Peak Oil since around 2002 time. I have read 1,000s of articles, 10,000s of post by PO posters on forums. A few books etc...Through it all I have made my own observations about the general peak oil bunch and where I see most of you people who know about peak oil at the Oldovia start -5 years into its decline. note Oldovia can start as early as 2010..but I do think it will be in most of our life times here. "Aslo note Oldovia is really the idea that most of us are here posting it goes hand and hand with peak oil and peak energy.
1.About 80%of PEAK Oil posters are what I call 'couch preparers'  for peak oil. You prepare for peak oil via a sofa and the Internet. You have lots of words, but no real skills. On Human relations and community you tend to be liberals. And most tend to have no idea on how humans react in low energy environments. Most are this are introverted people who have about 5 friends and tend to be quit individualistic. Most of you around Oldovia time will be unemployed, disillusions and angry just like your fellow Westerners who don't know about Peak Oil. But you will have more regrets...Ohh I should have done this, Oh I knew about this, Why was I so stupid and didn't do this....will be your thoughts. A few years into Oldovia time most of you will have very little and the basics of life will be your priority.
2. A second class are what I call 'good intentioned' peak oilers this is about 10% of posters. these are posters who buy a few books, plant a little garden, maybe relocated to a more livable area or the boondocks, learn a skill. Now these people will be of coarse a few % point better off Oldovia time then group 1, but they also will suffer from huge unemployment, disillusioned and angry  people around them,a infrastructure of pure shit without cheap energy, a garden and the means of agriculture that is unable to support them without a local Foodmart to help.The Boondocks people will be entirely screwed in this regard. Likely these people's food supplies will run low and they will likely join group 1 above.
3.Eco-Village people. Similar to group 2. But will be worse off come Oldovia slide. These people will be looted and plundered and possible made into refugee centers by the government.Yes good intentioned they were......they will likely join the ranks of group 1 a few years into Oldovia.
4. Realist- People who understand the Peak oil will kill off about 70-95% of humans. People who understand history. people who understand race issues in less energy world. people who understand farming and how farming works. People who don't trust the governments. people who have lots of guns, Know a community, Won't allow in outsiders. People who are already simple in living and are use to less. With an area of a fair infrastructure. This is about 2% of Peak Oilers..They will be in a league of their own Oldovia time. Wont be easy for these people, but they will be better off then the 3 other groups.
5.Retards-This tends to be about 5% of Peak Oil posters. People are so blind they make me sick! This tends to be Ultra Liberals who think Oldovia time that mankind will come together sit around a camp fire and sing Kumb By Ya. These folks also tend to buy into Yerganism and how the world will drive cars on used Hamburger grease.
 I have a few more classes of people but they tend to be about 1% or less so I did not post them in this.
 Anyway from my readings on boards, Post etc...I feel about 90% of you are really no better off then ave Joe who knows nothing about Peak Oil. Come Oldovia Slide.
 So whats my advise...Live for the day....Go watch MTV and Opera Winfrey, Go to Disney Land..Shop at the mall..eat drink and be marry for tomorrow you will likely die or go hungry.

[Sensei]

I'm going to go play Deer Hunter on my Xbox 360.

[mem]

Two thoughts on this analysis:

1.  Like some of those in that article about the Australian peakniks, I'm not going to tell everyone exactly what I am doing.  You may be drawing conclusions on incomplete data.

2.  I don't buy the all out mad-max scenario.  Therefore, even if you knew what I was doing you wouldn't find it sufficient anyway. 

[Thuja]

My observation of Peak Oil People:

There are a number of folks who are really really simplistic and see the coming times in one simple, "easy to understand" way so they can act like they know the one True way of preparing for the coming times.  These people are often dogmatic to the point of reminding me of fundamentalist Christians.  They often like to preach about the one "True" way and how they are one of the select chosen few that will make it through the hard times.  Why?  It makes them feel better.  It soothes their frightened little minds.  It makes them feel....superior. 

[mem]

Testify, Thuja!

I totally agree. 

And I think the level of dismissiveness and condescention to other people's strategies and knowledge may be off-putting for some people who would otherwise contribute.

[suburban_junkscape]

Those observations seem pretty accurate to me. I'm a couch preparer myself. My main preparation is psychological. I accept I'm going to die right along with the Chevy Tahoe drivers but at least I've known it's coming for years and I won't be going crazy asking, "What the hell is happening? Nobody told us about this?" The post peak oil years will be so harsh that death might not be so bad.  

[Nicole]

Although the original post seems clearly designed as an attempt to insult certain forum members, this is a very interesting topic.  So here's my take on the subject, hopefully with a bit more objectivity.



CLUELESS MASSES: Self-explanatory

INFORMED POPULATION: These folks are PO aware, but have not yet accepted the reality.

TECHNO FIX: These folks are PO aware, but either do not understand the ramifications or are simply unwilling to really accept the reality of PO.  They have faith that "someone" will fix the problem for them

THE DESPAIRING:  Here we have PO aware individuals who are either incapable of forming and acting out a plan (any plan) to help them and their loved ones survive, or are religious folks who are more concerned with saving their souls, or are simply so deeply pessimistic they see no sense in even attempting to prepare.

INACTIVE PREPARERS:  Likely the largest group.  This group has not yet begun to prepare or is in early stages of non-committal development, like reducing debt and exercising more.  They may have a bug-out bag or small home stockpiles.  Typically, they are still trying to form an opinion on the potential outcome and best way to prepare.  Depending on their personalities, they may have amassed large amounts of paper knowledge and have extensive libraries -- but while they have studied the edible plants books, they have never actually seen the plants.  They run the risk of becoming PERPETUAL PREPARERS. 

ACTIVISTS:  Those who have chosen not to prepare and instead focus on social and economic change.  They are often hard-crash proponents.  Of all the groups, ACTIVISTS are the most like to view Peak Oil objectively without agrarian/militant/macho fantasies that some other groups are prone to.  ACTIVISTS may at any point migrate to one of the early preparedness categories. 

PERPETUAL PREPARERS:  A state of circular thinking, where INACTIVE PREPARERS continue to amass paper knowledge and have plans to move ahead, but fail to act on those plans.  Another candidate for the largest group.  Some of this group may be able to break out of this thinking and begin early preparation.

WILDERNESS SURVIVALISTS:  You will never see these folks on the internet -- if you do, they are actually INACTIVE PREPARERS with macho fantasies.  However, this seems to be a dead end preparation technique, since it involves only basic survival, has not support group or backup plan, and is unsustainable long term without the products of civilization.  Often, even active WILDERNESS SURVIVALISTS are prone to macho fantasies which cloud their reasoning ability about the likely success of their chosen route.  Some may migrate to the militant preparedness path.

URBAN GARDENER:  Typically a soft crash proponent.  They believe in a slow reduction of oil usage and a gradual return to a lower energy lifestyle.  Bicyclists and walkers, container gardeners, hobbiests of anticipated high-demand post peak skills.  In some cases, URBAN GARDENERS may be hard/medium crash proponents, but are focusing their preparation on this route as the only apparent possibility for their situation.  In a few cases, URBAN GARDENERS are pschologically incapable of accepting a civilization without the urban surroundings they are familiar with.

URBAN HOMESTEADER:  A matured URBAN GARDENER that has transformed their home to be as self-sustaining as possible in an urban environment.  They may have a large plot in a community garden, water catchment systems, PV arrays, back-up heating methods and highly-insulated homes.

NEW AGRARIANS:  An early preparer along the Agrarian preparedness path.  Agrarians may be soft, middle or hard crash proponents.  At this point, NEW AGRARIANS have purchased land and a home and are gardening or otherwise begin to produce their own food and goods.  Quite likely they are still actively involved in the oil economy by holding jobs or living off retirement or saved money or investments.  At this point in their development, they are still highly dependent on outside resources and are vulnerable to economic and social upheaval.  Many NEW AGRARIANS are carrying a lot of ideological baggage in the form of veganism or extreme environmentalism, and this would include eco-communities and other ideologically based groups.

MIDDLE AGRARIANS:  A matured AGRARIAN.  They have achieved a basic level of sustainability and although they are probably still somewhat dependent on the wider economy, they are more likely to survive economic and social upheaval.  They have left behind any unusable ideological baggage they may have had, although their ideology probably has colored and shaped their development of their land.  They have formed or successfully joined networks with the neighbors and in the community for future trade and mutual support and are extending their knowledge from basic know-how to internalizing the knowledge to best succeed given their resources.  Additionally, they are extending their knowledge base into other areas and have achieved a journeyman level in at least one other non-agricultural, post-peak demand skill.

AMMO STOCKPILER:  An early stage along the Militant preparedness path.  Militants are exclusively hard crash proponents, usually to an extreme.  In early stages have little to offer themselves for survival other than a stockpile of weapons and ammo, which often have little experience and proficiency with.  AMMO STOCKPILERS may also have stockpiles of other supplies.  Only a small percentage of AMMO STOCKPILERS move on to become more mature Militants.

FORTIFIED HOMESTEADER:  A more mature step another the Militant preparedness path, FORTIFIED HOMESTEADERS have achieved at least a journeyman level of proficiency with their weaponry and have moved on to create a highly secure home which has significant food production and/or tradable items and skills.  The FORTIFIED HOMESTEADER is usually not interested in achieving any kind of self-sustainability, and may be expecting to survive in a new post-peak world as a mercenary, parasite, or by absorbing the resources of less-successful neighbors to acquire the additional items they need.

PEAK OIL SURVIVOR:  Someone who has successfully mastered the skills required to survive any post peak scenario.  The Holy Grail of preparedness and high debatable.

-------------------------------

Did I miss any?  And where do you fit in?  Personally, by spring I should be a NEW AGRARIAN, and hope to achieve that level of MIDDLE AGRARIAN within 3 years after that.

[OldHorseman]

And where do you fit in?

   I get to be in more than one category, right?

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

Leaf,

As usualy you make some good points in your own "special" way. And (as usual) somebody else (in this case Nicole) takes your points and actually articulates them well for you.

 

I suppossed I"m a "perpetual preparer" who would like to be a "new agrarian" but does not yet have the asset base yet. As Nicole points out, the NA's usually have significant assets at their disposal if they were not born into the situation.

What about "potential nomad"?

I think that would more accurately characterized me at this point.

[Michelle in Ga]

Great topic.

Not exactly sure if I fit any one scenario. I'm INTO stocking ammo. But I feel we can use if for food/defense/alternate
barter currencey. My 5 acre spread may not sustain me completely, but I'm not going to sit back and do nothing. I
enjoy gardening, it's a challenge. I lost very few plants in a long summer drought. Go me! I will have a paycheck
until the bitter end. As for the die-off, I can't get dragged down by that. I WILL survive, I'm wired that way.
Cheers, Michelle

Leaf wishes he had as many guns as I do. 

[Nicole]

I didn't mean the AGRARIAN and MILITANT paths to be mutually exclusive.  An AGRARIAN probably hunts and forages; a MILITANT probably at least has a few vegetable plants.  Anyone on any path should be capable of defending themselves and what they have, however they choose to make that defense.

I doubt many of us would fit any one box or circle up there exactly.

Matt, I know you don't consider yourself an ACTIVIST, but I would kind of put you in this category because of the time you spend on this site and in other activities.  You'd like to make the jump elsewhere, but you haven't yet, so you might lean toward INACTIVE PREPARER, but you don't seem to have the mental stagnation and circular reasoning that I envisioned the PERPETUAL PREPARERS to have.  PERPETUAL PREPARERS can't act, they just sort of peak oil masturbate.

OH, you are probably the best candidate around here for PEAK OIL SURVIVOR, assuming what you say about yourself is accurate.  (Always a crap shoot on the internet.)  You seem to have a militant mindset, yet have achieved a mature agrarian homestead.  Your biggest problem is that you need about 4 more families just like you around there and more household members.

Personally, I think PO SURVIVORS will have to be able to have a sustainable farm, be able to effective defend it, and in the event of major disaster have at least one critical skill that makes their brains worth keeping around enough that others will contribute to your survival.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

BTW,

The most popular books from the LATOC store tend to back up your points Nicole. The most popular are:

When Technology Fails (at least before the publisher ran out)
Gardening When It Counts (for the homesteader and the agrarian categories)
The Secure Home (for both the hsers and ags, this sold amazingly fast when I first put it up)
The Homeowner's Guide to Renewable Energy (hsers and ags)
The Renewable Energy Handbook (hsers and ags)

I bought a whole bunch of "Wilderness Survival Skills" figuring it would be a big hit. It has tanked. I then realized the people most likely to buy it aren't on the internet in the first place.

The various "activist oriented" books like The Partys Over make up a small fraction of my overall business for two reasons: A. they can be bought cheaper on Amazon and B. I think most of my readers have realized political activism is unlikey to accomplish much outside of a few small towns.

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

Matt, I know you don't consider yourself an ACTIVIST, but I would kind of put you in this category because of the time you spend on this site and in other activities.  You'd like to make the jump elsewhere, but you haven't yet, so you might lean toward INACTIVE PREPARER, but you don't seem to have the mental stagnation and circular reasoning that I envisioned the PERPETUAL PREPARERS to have.  PERPETUAL PREPARERS can't act, they just sort of peak oil masturbate.

What about Peak Oil businessperson?  Once things hit the fan I highly doubt people will be logging onto LATOC to buy a copy of End of Suburbia but I may be able to leverage my entreprenuerial (sp?) skills into something more localized like the hypothetical bike repair shop I've mentiond before.

There will be commerce, it occurs in even the most dire of human circumstances, so what about that as a category? Somebody's got to run the trading post after all.

[Jennifer]

There is another type of Peak Oil person as well (and this is NOT meant as a dig at anybody here): the type of person who is a complete loser in our current society and hopes that he can be a bigshot post-peak. I tried commenting on Jim Kunstler's board, but gave up because so many of the posters fell into that category. I specifically remember one frothing sociopath who went by "Joe." Joe would simultaneously complain about women (those lousy bitches who refuse to pay attention to him), and then salivate over the thought that after the peak he could have any woman he wanted in exchange for a can of pork and beans. Translation: "After the shit hits the fan, I will FINALLY get laid!"

Mem and Thuja, I also believe peak oil will be an economic decline rather than a Mad Max scenario. We should start a thread of our own discussing the plans we are making in regards to that. The problem is, such a thread wouldn't really fit into any of the forums here. (Hey, Doctor Doom! Remember when I suggested starting a sub-forum for non-doomers? Hint, hint.)

[JurisDoctorOfDoom]

Matt, I know you don't consider yourself an ACTIVIST, but I would kind of put you in this category because of the time you spend on this site and in other activities. 

Yes, but this is more business-oriented than anything else. I mean you have seen the nice big LATOC store have you not. Just in case you haven't, I will provide you the links for convenience purposes:

The LATOC Store
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ItemCategorySubPages/StoreMainPage.html

Massive Holiday Sale on Global Sun Ovens!!! Lowest price on the internet!!! http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/IndividualItemPages/SunOvenSale.html



 

The site sure as hell wouldn't get updated daily, nor would the newsletter get produced. (next issue should be out tomorrow btw)  I might post on the site but probably at a much lower rate, mostly for the entertainment value I get from it. An activist is somebody, at least in my opinion, who is updating their blog, going to meetings, etc. and doing so for free.